This is a truly global crisis as no country is spared. The cumulative loss to global GDP over 20 from the pandemic crisis could be around 9 trillion dollars, greater than the economies of Japan and Germany, combined.
This recovery in 2021 is only partial as the level of economic activity is projected to remain below the level we had projected for 2021, before the virus hit. This makes the Great Lockdown the worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse than the Global Financial Crisis.Īssuming the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and that policy actions taken around the world are effective in preventing widespread firm bankruptcies, extended job losses, and system-wide financial strains, we project global growth in 2021 to rebound to 5.8 percent. This is a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020, a major revision over a very short period. Under the assumption that the pandemic and required containment peaks in the second quarter for most countries in the world, and recedes in the second half of this year, in the April World Economic Outlook we project global growth in 2020 to fall to -3 percent. Policymakers are providing unprecedented support to households, firms, and financial markets, and, while this is crucial for a strong recovery, there is considerable uncertainty about what the economic landscape will look like when we emerge from this lockdown. In addition, many countries now face multiple crises-a health crisis, a financial crisis, and a collapse in commodity prices, which interact in complex ways.
A lot depends on the epidemiology of the virus, the effectiveness of containment measures, and the development of therapeutics and vaccines, all of which are hard to predict. This is a crisis like no other, and there is substantial uncertainty about its impact on people’s lives and livelihoods. April World Economic Outlook projects global growth in 2020 to fall to -3 percent.
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